Supporting Barack Obama

Even though I can't vote, (and will probably never vote in the U.S. unless Kenya allows dual citizenship) I have every intention of supporting Barack Obama's presidential campaign.

As during the Democratic party nomination, I will donate up to $200 for his campaign kitty. I could have given more but I don't want my name being published online.

Come the next 3 months, I will donate $50 per month towards Obama's campaign kitty. I've also asked my wife to do the same but she can't be bothered as she is apolitical.

Hopefully he will bag the presidency. It's not going to be easy but he stands a good chance of winning.

Post Recession Stocks List

Towards the end of last year, I put together a list of stocks to follow with a view of buying some of the names. My thoughts back then were that the U.S. economy was headed for a recession. As this was going to be a consumer driven slow-down, my list of stocks consisted of companies that would reap the benefits of an improved consumer spending during the next economic expansion.

Stock Symbols

LCAV	NBG	DIS
TEVA	SYT	GS
TKG	SFL	ADM
MBLX	MGPI	RFMD
BX	SBS	PVX
TNDM	ALVR	WFMI
LTR	ARLP	LOGI
C	BTU	TRAMX
ALJ	EXC	CZZ
QCOM	HOG	SRZ
TBL	WOOF	GOOG

As of today, most of these companies have fallen 30 to 60 percent from their 52-week high prices and some have traded at multi-year lows during the course of this year.

Using Yahoo Finance, I have been following this stocks almost everyday. That is in addition to other stock lists that I have created, which include; stocks that I own or have owned in the past, energy and alternative energy companies, high dividend paying stocks and gold producers.

Come every evening, I go through the closing prices, look at the trading volumes and any news from these companies that I diligently follow. I also like to review any SEC filings especially their earnings reports. And in some cases, I look at the technicals using a pre-configured chart.

Owing to the fact that stock prices are a leading economic indicator, it is very likely that some of these stocks that I follow will precede an economic expansion. This means that I will have to buy some of the names before we come out of the slowdown.

With the way things stand as far as the housing slow-down and the sub-prime mess, I believe the next bull market will start after we have experienced a major move in the currency market. At the current U.S deficit levels and increased household debt, it is likely that we will see further weakening of the dollar. Only after the dollar has made a move from it's current trading range will I jump into the market with both feet. And before then, we might see some banks failing. Perhaps it will be one of the major investment banks.

We shall find out soon enough.

PS. Anyone else with a post-recession stock list? Feel free to share in the comments section.

Attending Obama's Inauguration

Ever since Barack Obama won the Democratic party presidential nominations, I have been contemplating booking an air ticket to attend next year's presidential inauguration. Back then I was unsure that Obama would clinch the nomination but it is now looking increasingly clear that this race is for him to lose.

To the delight of my missus, it looks like I will not be attending Obama's inauguration. Seeing the numbers that attended his Berlin address, I can only imagine what the crowd will be like during his inauguration. My expectation is that no less than 1 million egg-heads people will troop to Capitol Hill to see him being sworn-in.

With such a large crowds, I'd be surprised if I got a glimpse of him. To see him being sworn-in might mean camping on the streets so as to get a good spot.

Accounting Gimmicks For Stock Market Dummies

This morning Wells Fargo's 2nd quarter earnings report was all it took to break the declining streak that characterized the markets in the last few weeks. The less than expected profit drop was all the bulls needed to reassure them that all is well in the financial sector despite the fact that we have just witnessed the second largest bank failure in the U.S this past week.

While I have not had a chance to thoroughly comb through there results, it was not hard to notice that they recently changed the way they define delinquencies in home-equity loans. Wells Fargo's Home Equity charge-off policy was changed from "120 days to no more than 180 days to provide more time to work with customers to solve their credit problems and keep them in their homes".

Obviously this change in accounting has been instituted to stem the losses from defaulting HELOCs. From what I've read before, Wells Fargo has a big exposure to home-equity loans especially in the shaky Californian market which is experiencing steep decline in home prices.

The change in the Home Equity charge-off policy will only serve to delay the losses from HELOC. Sooner, rather than later, these numbers will make their way into the non-performing asset category and ultimately be written off.

And to add insult to injury, the bank announced today that they would increase their dividend payout by 10%. With other banks cutting dividends to shore up capital, you have to wonder the wisdom of increasing the dividend pay-off. Never mind that the bank may not return to profitability soon.

I can only wonder what other gimmicks Wells Fargo may have employed to fool investors into believing that all is well in the financial sector.

Lost In Translation

Earlier today, we were seated next in a restaurant having dinner and next to us sat a family vacationing from Europe. When they were done with the main course, they ordered their deserts. After they had been served with their orders, one of the kids called for the waitress.

Apparently, she had been served with iced tea. She did not know that these sides of the shores tea is served ice cold, un-creamed and sweetened with several teaspoonfuls of sugar. Embarrassed at the misunderstanding, she told the waiter that she had wanted a hot cup of tea.

And it's not only the Europeans who was having problems with Americans. At our table, a different conversation was unfolding.

Both my wife and I were being taught how to pronounce English words. In our case, our kids were teaching us how to pronounce words such as cotton candy, Mack (cartoon character), lemonade and water, just to name a few.

From our kids point of view, we are mispronouncing the English words despite the fact that none of us shrubs. Unlike them who have been brought up in America, we learnt our English back in Kenya and therefore we do not speak with American accents.

I guess we'll be learning the English language all over again. So much for the English lessons we took in Kenyan schools.

Killing Me Softly With This Oil

Oil today broke through the $145 per barrel after European Central Bank raised Eurozone interest rates by 0.25% to 4.25%. Their counterparts in the US, the Feds, have their hands tied with a weakening economy.

Keen on controlling inflation in Europe, unlike the Feds who have turned to fudging with the numbers, the ECB has decided not to keep their rates unchanged like the Federal Reserve Bank.

You've got to give it up for the ECB which is more concerned of over burdening its populace. With the US housing situation now in a free fall spiral and the coming presidential elections, the Fed has been caught between a rock and a hard place. Inflation kicking consumers on one hand and slowing economy threatening to bankrupt business and sending unemployment up.

You can be sure now that the US has caught a bad cold, the rest of the world is going to be dragged down with the worlds largest economy. Of course, the developing countries will bear the brunt. Reduced remittances, inflation, high oil prices, expensive imports and reduced trade will definitely rattle these countries.

PS. As of yesterday, the price of regular gasoline at my local gas station was $3.99 per gallon. I expect we'll break through the $4 mark today.