Thank You Kofi Annan

Kofi Annan finally pulled through for Kenyans. The deal he brokered with Mwai Kibaki and Raila Odinga marks the first step in restoring democracy and the rule of law in our fragile nation. When all Kenyans have given up hope against finding some sort of solution, the soft spoken diplomat proved that he's not all talk.

On behalf of hopeful Kenyans, I would sincerely like to thank you for your hard efforts and patience that you have demonstrated.

Last but not least, the sustained efforts of Graca Michel and Benjamin Mkapa cannot be ignored. Asanteni sana.

Donating Money To Presidential Candidates

Some time this morning, the Obama campaign headquarters released a statement that they had surpassed their goal of one million donors. To put his into perspective, this is no mean feat considering that we are still in the primaries though the end might be nearer than most people think.

It's no secret that Barack Obama is attracting the highest number of individual donors, most whom have never given a dime to any presidential candidate nor are they involved in any political action committees (PACs). What's more is that most of Obama's donors are contributing far less than the maximum $2,300 that they are allowed and can therefore make future donations to his campaign.

Owing to the contribution rules, it is possible to identify the individuals who are contributing to the presidential campaigns. Huffington Post which runs the Fundrace website, publishes donor information on the web for individuals who have contributed more than $200 to any of the candidates.

On their website, you can check which of the presidential candidates your colleagues at work or your neighbours are supporting. The website allows one to search by name, place of work or even physical address. They also have the option of searching by the city.

At my place of work, my colleagues have contributed $62,275 as of first quarter of this year to the 2008 presidential campaigns. Of which, $20,075 has gone to Republican candidates and $45,200 has been given to Democratic party contestants.

The highest individual contribution is $4,600 to Senator Hillary Clinton and the lowest is $225 to Republican Mike Huckabee. In between the 60 or so donors, 2 out of every 3 donations have gone to Democratic party candidates while Christopher Dodd seems to have attracted the big money followed by Hillary Clinton. Most of Hillary's contributions are from women who occupy high positions in the company.

Closer to home in my neighborhood, 55 individuals have contributed a total $56,036 for the presidential candidates. Slightly more than half of these individuals have given $28,165 to the Democrats while $27,871 has gone to the Republicans. No one in my sub-division appears on the list and neither have I made any direct contributions to any of the candidates.

If I were to make a donation, it would probably go to Barack Obama though I doubt if I will do so considering that my details will be made public by the Federal Election Commission. Instead, I'd rather donate to a cause that supports the candidate of my choice.

Paying For Convenience

For the last several months I've been waiting impatiently for the release of American Gangster on DVD. When we watched the movie last year in the theater, we hurriedly left as they were running the narratives at the end of the movie because we had to pick up the kids from night childcare before they closed at 9 pm. We could have watched till the end of the movie but the kids hate it when they are the last ones to be picked and we wanted to save them from the agony of waiting for us.

This past Tuesday, the movie was released on DVD and my plan was to make sure I watch it again over the weekend. My choices were, to buy the DVD for $17 or rent out the DVD for less. As this is not a movie I would like lying around in the house because of it's unsuitability for the young ones, my only option was to rent it. Even then, I had a choice as for where to rent it from. Either from Blockbuster's or the Redbox self service kiosks situated in McDonalds eateries. The difference being the price of the rental.

With Blockbuster, you pay $4.29 for a weeks rental during which you can watch the movie at your own liking. With Redbox, they charge $1.07 per night for the duration you rent the DVD. The difference between the two options, is that there is no rush with watching the DVD from Blockbuster as you have up to 10 days to do so. Even though in both cases, most people watch the movie just once, you pay an extra $3 dollars for the convenience of renting it from Blockbuster.

And so it seems with life in general. Take another example of soda. You have the option of buying Sprite in various sized bottles or cans. The largest size is a 2 liter bottle and the smallest sized Sprite comes in a 8 oz can. The latter is sold in a 8 can pack while the former comes as a single bottle. Even though the bottle contains more soda than the 8 oz pack combined, it retails for as low as $1 depending on where you buy it. With the 8 pack, you pay $3 for the convenience of the smaller sized cans that can be carried in a lunch pack or even a hand bag. It could be argued that the unit operations/inputs for the canned soda cost much more than that of the bottled soda and hence the price differential.

Sprite soda prices at my local Walmart Supercenter

Size	#'s	Price	Per fl Oz
2 Liter	1	$1.38	2.1 cents
500 ml	6	$3.30	2.3 cents
225 ml	8	$3.00	4.7 cents
500 ml	1	$1.28	6.4 cents

This difference in pricing extends across all sizes of Sprite sodas sold in supermarkets. The half liter bottle normally found at the checkouts, retails for as much if not more than the 2 liter bottle. For the price of 3 half liter bottles, you can head into the supermarket aisles and get yourself a 6 half liter pack of Sprite for $3.30 instead of the $1.28 that you would pay for the single bottles.

The convenience provided by vending machines is even costlier. A half liter bottle goes for $1.50 down the hallway at work. It's no wonder that every Monday morning, you'll see guys coming into work with packs of soda. Over the weekend, they'll shop for their drinks and snacks instead of getting them from the vending machine. For this reason, you'll find a 6 bottle pack of Sprite in my car trunk. Because I never know when I might need a soda, I have it in there just in case I am in need of a drink.

All this just goes to show that there is a huge market out there for convenience and people are willing to pay for it all in the name of simplifying their lifestyle. As they say, less is more. Or is it more is less?

Trade Barack Obama And Hillary Clinton Stocks

Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton supporters have the opportunity to not only put their money where their mouth is but to profit from their candidate at Intrade. If you believe in free markets, Barack Obama contracts have soared compared to Hillary and are indication that he is likely to carry the Democratic party nomination.

Barack Obama's contracts are trading at new highs while Hillary Clinton's are plummeting to lower lows. Obama's contracts have risen from single digits in the last one and a half years. Until the end of last year, Hillary's contracts mirrored her confidence that she will be the automatic nominee.

With the race on it's 6th inning, most of the money has been made out of the Obama vs Hillary contest. There's only 20 points left for each candidate if we are to believe that Obama has clinched the nomination. If this does not pan out, then there is about $8 per contract to be made from each candidate.

Closer to home, the only contract available is that of the Olympics being held in Africa in 2006. With South Africa hosting the World Cup in 2010, there is a real possibility that the elections will be held in Africa in 2016. Closer to the announcement of the venue, probably when the bidding opens, these contracts will certainly be trading above 1 point that it trades right now.

From tonight's Texas debate, Hillary is fighting hard to keep Obama from winning the Texas primaries and caucuses. If we are to go with past opinion polls, the statistical tie in Obama's favor and he may bag the Great State.

Recommendation; At this point we have a no-brainer. Do not buy Hillary Clinton contracts. Short Hillary (and McCain on the bounce) to oblivion and long Obama to the White House.

Gold is King

Just when I thought that I am done with blogging about Gold another opportunity arises for one more post. If you’ve been following the price of Gold, you will have realized that commodities are about the only class of asset within the range of hitting their all time high prices. Just today, Gold for April delivery jumped $25.50 to $931.60 an ounce.

With significant gains in Gold, I’ve been looking for tell-tale signs of when to sell my tidy precious metal investment. Even though I regret not being greedy and buying more Gold, I’m still pleased with the gains that I have made over the last 2 years.

The question that begs my attention is, Should I ring the register? The answer to that question depends on my investment range, i.e. short term, medium term or long term.

While the above diagram from US Global Investors Inc speaks volumes about the investability of Gold, it falls short of capturing the bigger picture. In the short term, all indications are the price of Gold will continue to rise while in the medium term, we might see the opposite. Once the Feds are done with slashing rates and the US economy stabilizes, many investors seeking a safe haven from the equity markets will rotate back into stocks. Long term, like all other asset classes the price of Gold will appreciate.

However, the icing on the Gold cake is the world wide production levels of Gold. Like Oil, investors are beginning to understand that Gold is not a renewable resource and its production may have peaked in the last few years. If anything, we are beginning to see a decline in Gold production while at the same time the demand for Gold is on the rise.

In the short term, I will hold onto my Gold stocks. After that, I will let the fundamentals to speak for it, but any serious investor should be looking into holding some Gold in their portfolio.

PS: Interestingly, the IMF recently announced that it will be selling some of its $92 billion Gold reserves to fund its programs. The sale of the Gold, by the third largest Gold holder after the US and Germany, is still subject to approval by the US congress but will do little in holding down the price of Gold.

Stock Market Practice Makes Perfect Trades

In a bid to sharpen my stock picking strategy, I've opened up an account with Market Watch Virtual Stock Exchange. Any one out there interested in testing out their strategies can join in.

With the US markets on a bear mode, this would be a good opportunity for anyone itching for trades or suffering from stock trading withdrawal symptoms. You start with $100,000 and trading ends in September 30 just about the time that we should be coming out of the slowdown or recession, depending on what you want to call it. I'm betting that the slowdown will last for 2 or 3 quarters. 4 quarters max, if it gets really bad.

Game ID: Kenyans
Game Password: 08221978

Open this link and read the competition summary: Join VSE Kenyans

Click on the 'Join Game' link. If you are an existing Virtual Stock Exchange member, enter your Email address and Password in the login panel and get set to trade. If you are a new user, follow the link to register - it's easy! Follow the instructions and start trading!

"Go ahead, pull the trigger Mr Chang".

Some people are just born to trade.

Warning; Stock trading can be addictive as the brain is hard-wired for money. The human brain responds to high-stakes trading just as it does to the lure of drugs. And the riskier the trades get, the more the brain craves them.

Yes. We. Can.

As seen on TV and heard by millions.

"We know the battle ahead will be long, but always remember that no matter what obstacles stand in our way, nothing can stand in the way of the power of millions of voices calling for change." - Senator Barack Obama, January 8, 2008 New Hampshire post primary speech.

Paid for and supported by Republicans for Obama.

From Africa....., To America

This month we celebrate Black History Month in honor and appreciation of the struggles the African Americans have endured through the years ever since the black man first set foot on this side of the Atlantic Ocean.

In a small way, I identify with them because I'm also from Africa and I first set foot in the western hemisphere in the month of February many moons ago. Excited at the prospect of traveling abroad, I set off for a visit that opened up my eyes and made me aware that the streets abroad were not paved with gold as I had believed. In the 3 short weeks that I holidayed abroad, I came to appreciate the beauty of the Dark Continent and my people.

Many years have since passed since my first sojourn abroad, and today I find myself in a foreign land which I call my home even though my first love will always be the land of my ancestors.

This new home represents hope. Not just for myself and my family but also for millions of other immigrants who have journeyed to the land of the free and the home of the brave. Even though life is still a struggle for the majority of immigrants, this nation represents a dream, a new hope, a new beginning and a better life.

It is for this reason that as an immigrant, I identify more with the black history month because I too have to struggle to make a mark in this foreign land. Fortunately, I stand tall on the shoulders of others who fought with their tears, sweat and blood, and even gave their lives so that I may enjoy the liberties of America.

It is these people that I would like to honor. Their struggles made it possible for this son from Africa to come here to America in search of a new hope. Your loss was not in vain. That is why for the first time in America's unchequered history we are looking at the prospect of Barack Obama, the son of a Kenyan immigrant, leading this nation as its president.

What began as a dream has now become a whisper in Springfield carrying across the cornfields of Iowa and swelling into a chorus that cannot be ignored, a chorus that cannot be deterred. In the states North and South, East and West, the dream lives on.

Quote of the Month: "Folks, I didn't major in math, I majored in miracles and I still believe in miracles." - Mike Huckabee, Southern Baptist minister and GOP presidential contender vowing to fight to the end of the nominations.

Security Situation In Kenya

With all the going-ons in Kenya and the clamp-down or self-censorship of the Kenyan media, it has become impossible to determine the actual security situation on the ground. For most Kenyans in the Diaspora, we have to rely on our family and friends back home. Foreigners seeking to travel to Kenya have to check with their travel agent or their government's foreign affairs office.

This being the case, it is not uncommon to receive inquiries from Non-Kenyans about the situation in our country.

Last week I received one such inquiry. A colleague called and asked me if I could speak to his friend who had planned on visiting Kenya in March. As with most tourists visiting the country, he had been planning his visit for the past one year and was looking forward to travelling until everything flared up. Though this has been very disappointing for him, he was reluctant to cancel his planned vacation though everyone else was urging him to do so.

His reason for wanting to talk to me was so that he can get a clearer picture of what is happening in Kenya. Even before he had finished telling me about his itinerary, I asked him to hold off his travel plans while the Kofi Annan mediation efforts were under-way.

As much as I would love for him to visit Kenya, I told him that even if he does not travel in March there will be opportunities in the future. It's not like our tourism attractions are being destroyed. I asked him to keep an eye on Raila Odinga and Mwai Kibaki's relationship. Until the time that they come together in agreement or one of them concedes, the situation in Kenya will remain very dynamic.

While most of the country is free from violence, there is no guarantee that there will be no flare-ups going by the pronouncements from politicians on both sides and the 'sporadic' killings of elected members of parliament. There is no telling of where we are headed though the majority of Kenyans are for peace.

Unfortunately, it takes the efforts of the minority and the trigger happy security forces to bring about violence that gets widely reported in the international media. What's more, these small skirmishes are known to cause major disruptions as is the case with the uprooting of the railway lines in Kenya.

So far the insecurity seems to have subsided but the political tensions are still evident. From the little I've heard, Kenya seems to be headed towards balkanization with people being forced to vacate from areas that they are not indiginous to. Frankly speaking, this is fuel for more chaos as it will worsen the economic situation and entrench tribalism. The irony of it all is that the government is doing nothing about the situation and I may add that they could be secretly supporting/encouraging it.

Talk Is Not Cheap

This January turned out to be something different than most Kenyans had expected. Even though the first month of the year is usually a slow month, it couldn't have been the opposite in Kenya. Samuel Kivuitu announcement of the muddled presidential elections seems to have pushed Kenya into everyone's lips. From the White House to the United Nation's Security Council, there is always something in the news about the post-elections violence in Kenya.

Not even the Kenyans abroad who are used to a quiet life have been spared from the ensuing chaos as some of our families and friends reside in the motherland. I don't think a day has gone without someone calling me during the day to talk about Kenya.

Normally, most of my social calls are in the evening or over the weekends. During a normal working day, it is very rare for anyone to call me for social reasons. Not so in January. By the time my work day is over, I'll have spoken to one or more Kenyan friends about the situation back at home.

It was only after I received last month's cell phone bill that I realized how much I have been talking with other Kenyans about the situation back at home. Instead of the usual $60 that it costs us monthly for our cell phone service, I'll be paying almost twice as much. Not only did we exceed our free minutes but we received an unusually high number of text messages. And the $105 January bill does not include the cost of international calls made to Kenya through our VOIP service.

And with the situation not under control, we can expect another month of chit chats over the state of affairs in Kenya. We are not even half-way into my cell phone billing cycle and we've already consumed more than half of the free minutes.

At this rate I might as well get a new family cell phone plan with more minutes. Or better still, stop taking calls during the day. Either way, the events in Kenya are costing us in ways that I could not have imagined.

My prayers are that February will be much better. I can only hope that we will not experience another dark month like January.