Thursday, October 23, 2008

Tomorrow Never Comes

Looking at the major indices, it seems that Friday is now the new Monday. As far as trading volume goes, the last 3 Friday's have seen more shares traded than the preceeding Monday.

The second thing that I have noticed is that the Fear Index has peaked in the last 3 Friday's. In all 3 instances, its started the week in the low 50's and closes towards the 70's.

And as far as action is concerned, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday seem to be the most volatile days.

If my observations hold true, then tomorrow should be an interesting day. Today's volume came in at 7 billion shares traded on the NYSE compared to 6 billion on Wednesday. The VIX is 3.6% away from last week's all time high record and there is no shortage of bad news in the media.

Tomorrow we get September's existing home sales. By any measure, I expect the numbers to be ugly because the mortgage market froze in September.

That said, I'm keeping my powder dry in preparation for a huge down day. I still think the market owes investors a major shakedown that will see everyone scamper in fear.

The fact that financial news media has not been apocalyptic about the current bear market means that we there are still many bulls out there.

0 comments: