Wednesday, May 19, 2010

Another Stock Market Crash?

I'm reading a lot of chatter on the web about an impending stock market crash. It is tempting to dismiss this talk but against the backdrop of the world economy, it looks like we are about to relive the post-Lehman stock market downturn.

The symptoms of the failure of capitalism couldn't be worse. Governments and citizens alike, are indebted to their eyeballs. The unemployment situation is getting worse as employers shed high paying jobs and replace headcount with low paying employees. And to top it off, China seems to be at the tipping point of an asset bubble fueled by the inflow of dollars from Uncle Sam.

Honestly, I doubt if the world can afford to take another beating and this time around it may bring about a full scale depression.

PS. Remember the what was billed as the biggest IPO in Kenya? Safaricom. Anyone? Well, the Chinese not to be left behind will be unveiling the world's largest IPO. China AgBank is set to raise $30 billion when it lists in Hong Kong and Shanghai in July.

Thursday, April 29, 2010

Would You Pay $75,000 To Live for 4 Months?

Here is the scenario; You are 70 years old and suffering from advanced prostate cancer. The doctor tells you that you have 22 more months to live, but if you pay $75,000, you could live for 26 months instead of 22 months. An additional 4 months.

What would you do?

Spend the $75,000 enjoying the next 22 months or pay $75,000 to prolong you life to 26 months?

If you are wondering what this is about, the Food & Drug Administration has just approved Provenge vaccine for treatment of advanced prostate cancer. The first in it's kind therapy, is expected to cost patients $75,000. Only that, medical insurance companies will have to foot the bill for most of the patients.

If you prefer to read deeper than the headlines, you can dive into the company's data presentation so as to get a better perspective of the drug.

PS. I wrote about Dendreon and Provenge previously here and here.

Tuesday, April 13, 2010

Lessons From Running A Business

I wanted to share some of the experiences I have had from running a business. As some of may know, I went on to start my business a while ago and I have been at it for at least 2 years. The first year involved setting it up before opening the doors. I will not go into the details of my business for obvious reasons but some readers who know me offline are fully aware of my venture.

Before I start outlining the lessons I have learnt, I will summarize everything into one word. Communication.

Running a business, especially if you are dealing in commerce means the exchange of good and/or service between individuals for monetary gain. That exchange is part of the communication. As much as having the right product or service is important, communication should be core to your business because you are dealing with other humans. And as you will see, communication will be central to the lessons I have learnt.

First off the bat is a no-brainer - Listen to your customers - or better said, put yourself in their shoes. Unless you have a compelling product or service that your customers can not do without, then you are better off paying attention to the feedback/suggestions/complaints/criticism from the people who pay you. And you don't have to wait for the customers to communicate to you, it could be as easy as listening in on their conversations with themselves or your competitors. Even if you listen to them, put yourself in their shoes. Walk their walk so that you can be in tune with their needs and get to experience your service/product. Call your own customer service/reception/help desk, buy your product or service - do everything that the do in the ways that they do it.

Beware of the experts - There are a lot of so-called experts (myself included - guilty) on the web . Unless they are your customers or have been in the same business before, be wary of their advice. Especially from those like to romanticize business - business is never easy. And should you need to consult, pick someone who does agree with you. After all, consulting is a 2-way street and I have gotten the best ideas /advice from a good debate rather than listening to the choir master. While you may need some encouragement in your endeavors, don't surround yourself with yes-men. You are better of with those who challenge you as they will give you the drive or push to prove yourself.

Be receptive to different perspectives and ideas - you may learn nothing new but it could result in a confirmation of a hunch. And to add on to this I would say, don't be afraid of discussing your business ideas with others. You don't have to reveal the nitty gritty but even dwelling on generalities will do. I will repeat this for the benefit of anyone who missed it), don't allow yourself the comfort of surrounding yourself with people who will nod at everything you do or say - That is how the US economy almost got into a depression. And when you find yourself drinking from the same Kool-aid receptor, know that you are doomed to fail too. Learn to listen, more so to those you disagree with.

Commit - if not to your yourself then to your customers. Running a business is more than an effort and in most cases a marathon that requires a lot of staying power. If you want to make a quick buck then I can tell you categorically that you are not cut for business. And while it is important to measure the success of the marathon in monetary terms, find other measures of success that will keep you going before you hit the mark in terms of profit. As part of the commitment don't start other ventures unless you can delegate and even then, you'd be over-stretching yourself thin. In other words, Focus, focus, focus - stay focused.

Deliver on your promises - in a timely fashion if you can. Even if it means losing money, a promise, especially to customers needs to be fulfilled. This I must add is one of the main reason businesses fail. Your word is important because as you will find out, business is all about trust. And the only way to build trust, and a business, is to do what you say you will do. In this day and age, you don't want to deal with disgruntled customers whose power can be amplified in social media with the help of Google search.

All said, I am enjoying my journey and it has been a very steep learning process. Being able to put all the theories and business ideas I have learnt into practice has been a very rich experience. If for some reason, you are reading this and you disagree with me, I would very much like to hear from you.

Tuesday, March 23, 2010

Understanding The American Healthcare Debate

If you've been following the news in America, then you must be aware of the Health-care bill that just got signed into law. In the days leading to the legislative battle, emotions have been rising and they reached fever pitch on Sunday night when the Democrats got their way in the House of Representatives.

You would think that Sunday night would have been the end of it but it seems the dust is yet to settle and the political temperatures may remain elevated for a while.

So, why the opposition? Is the promise of Health-care not a basic right?

Well, there is no simple answer to these questions but the arguments against the bill can be divided into 2 or 3 parts.

The first one is the abortion debate. The Right does support abortion and they don't want public funds being used on the same. Which leads me to wonder, don't the pro-choice supporters also pay taxes?

Not that I am supporting them, as I'm actually pro-life (rather than anti-abortion) but you have to consider the fact that the government collects taxes from everyone and it has a duty to all. That is why I believe in the separation of the State and the Church.

The second argument is a complex one. Basically, it is all about 'small' government and the responsibilities of an individual. To best explain this point, I will leave you with excepts from a book I was given as a gift when I moved to America.

Americans believe that you're given one life to live, and it's up to you to get it right. You should use the time to maximize individual potential (get a college degree) so as to ensure the highest quality life possible.

Each individual has got duties and responsibilities. Your life is in your own hands ... and the quality of life as well. You owe it to yourself to be beautiful, clever, skinny, successful, and healthy. If you fail, it's because you're not trying hard enough ... (you don't jog regularly, you should've eaten more bran). Death (and failure) becomes your fault.

PS. For those Kenyans living in America, I would recommend reading Brit-Think, Ameri-Think A Transatlantic Survival Guide by Jane Walmsley. Having come from Kenya, once a British colony, you will better understand life in America.

*The words in italics are mine.